Commit (sales)
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A deal the sales rep is confident will close this period. The highest-confidence category in a sales forecast.
In sales forecasting, a commit is a deal the rep is putting their reputation on. They are telling their manager: this deal will close this quarter. Not probably. Not hopefully. Will.
Forecast categories typically run: commit (will close), best case (likely to close), pipeline (could close), and upside (long shot). Commit deals should close at 80-90% rates. If a rep commits a deal and it does not close, that is a miss. Repeated misses erode trust and eventually cost the rep their job.
The CRO uses commit totals to build the number they give to the board. If total team commits are $4M and the board expects $5M, there is a $1M gap that must come from best case deals. If total commits exceed the target, the CRO can forecast with confidence.
Examples
A rep commits a deal in the forecast call.
The rep says: 'Acme Corp, $250k. Contract is in legal. The champion confirmed the CFO approved budget last week. Procurement review is on track. I commit this for this quarter.' The manager notes it as commit.
A committed deal slips.
The rep committed $400k from BigCo. In week 10 of the quarter, the prospect's board delays all new vendor approvals. The deal slips to Q1. The CRO is short $400k against the board forecast. The rep's credibility takes a hit.
Commit discipline improves forecast accuracy.
The CRO implements a rule: before committing a deal, the rep must answer three questions. Is the MSA signed? Is budget confirmed in writing? Is there a mutual close plan? Commit-to-close rates improve from 65% to 88%.
In practice
Read more on the blog
Frequently asked questions
What should the commit-to-close rate be?
Above 80% is the standard. Above 90% means your team has strong forecast discipline. Below 70% means reps are committing deals prematurely. Every missed commit erodes the CRO's credibility with the board.
What is the difference between commit and best case?
Commit means the rep stakes their credibility on the deal closing this period. Best case means the deal is likely but there are unresolved variables (legal review pending, budget not finalized). Commits should close 80%+ of the time. Best case deals close 40-60%.
Related terms
A prediction of how much revenue the sales team will close in a given period. The number the CEO gives to the board.
The total dollar value of deals your sales team is actively working. The most important leading indicator in any sales organization.
The ratio of total pipeline value to quota. Tells you whether you have enough opportunities to hit your number.
A sales qualification framework: Metrics, Economic buyer, Decision criteria, Decision process, Identify pain, Champion.
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